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Travel
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| Peak
& OFF PEAK TRAVEL Take a look |
Certain months of the year are more
expensive due to consumer demand or the time of the year. The travel
industry refers to it as Peak, Off-Peak, and the Shoulder seasons.
Peak season means heavy crowds and top dollar is paid; Off-Peak is
the least crowed and offers the lowest prices; and Shoulder season
is the change between peak and off peak and offers some savings. A
closer "peek" into the topic, however, reveals a complex
set of exceptions to the accepted rules of peak and off-peak travel.
On the whole, there are five concerns when discussing peak travel:
1) What day of the week is it?
2) What time of the day is it?
3) What time of the year is it?
4) Is it near a holiday?
5) Where are you going?
These issues will determine a few things: how much you pay for your
ticket; how full the planes will be; and whether or not things will
go smoothly (planes will be on time, etc.). In general, airfares are
lower, planes are less full, and on-time performance and other
hassles are improved during off-peak travel times.
We'll look at each one at a time.
A note on the stats we've used: we didn't pick these numbers because
they support our theories. A review of the past few years of similar
numbers will show that the stats below are very much the norm.
What Day of the Week?
Off-peak travel is generally considered Monday afternoon-Thursday
morning, with Saturdays thrown in for good measure in the summer.
Airlines frequently charge slightly lower fares for travel between
Monday at noon and Thursday at noon, and on Saturday, while
increasing fares significantly for Sunday, Monday morning, Thursday
afternoon/evening, and Friday travel. During the summer, count
Saturday as a peak travel day as well, and when it comes to Florida,
it depends on which direction you travel on which days. Here's where
things can get tricky: you probably won't be able to get out
of a popular vacation spot like Orlando on a Sunday night or Monday
morning, but you might be to get in.
On-time performance peaks just after sunrise, declines steadily all
day, then climbs again in the late-night hours. You're up to 15%
more likely to be there on time if you fly in the morning than in
the afternoon.
Best time to fly: morning
Worst time to fly: late afternoon/evening.
What Time of the Year Is It?
Time and day of travel issues are fairly simple to work around;
seasonal and holiday peak periods require more careful planning.
The Art and Science of Seasonal Fluctuations
The art of negotiating peak and non-peak travel periods remains as
much art as science, and as much brawn as brains. Typically, warm
climates are popular in winter months, cooler climes during the
summer months. However, it doesn't always work this way. For
instance, wintertime is peak travel period for Hawaii, but would you
automatically think that August is just as crowded? It is, as
Hawaii's temperate clime attracts desert dwellers in droves.
"All the people who live in hot places, like Phoenix and Texas,
will come to Hawaii during August," said Cathy Zadel, a Hawaii
specialist (who also hosts some IT chats!) "People are out of
school and on vacation, and it seems like all of California comes
over during August for short vacations."
On-Time Performance by Month
It may surprise travelers to know that no one season seems worse
than another for on-time performance. When measured by quarter,
on-time performance for the top 10 airlines hovers around 75%, with
little fluctuation. The worst month to Travel: June / The est month to travel: November
June would seem to have the best weather, and
thus fewer delays; November has Thanksgiving, the worst travel day
of the year, and thus more delays. Right? The numbers say otherwise.
On your average June day, you go from a peak of 85%, not too bad, to
a low of less than 60%, a truly precipitous drop-off of 25%.
Conclusion: while the time of day you travel during off-peak periods
is important, it is absolutely crucial during peak travel periods.
Is It Near a Holiday?
Holidays, in general, can be tough, especially Thanksgiving and
Hanukah/Christmas/New Year's. And don't forget Spring Break, as well
as Valentine's Day, on routes ranging from Hawaii, Key West, the
Caribbean and Mexico, Las Vegas and countless ski lodges. If you're
planning a romantic Valentine's Day proposal, you better plan ahead,
because an impulsive elopement might cost dearly at the ticket
counter.
Thanksgiving is an easy one: Wednesday is the heaviest travel day.
On the return trip, the following weekend is often not all that bad,
as folks tend to space their return flights out over the long
weekend.
Holiday peak days depend heavily on what day of the week certain
holidays fall on. For example; if New Year's Day falls on a Friday,
peak travel might not happen until Sunday, Jan 3 or even Monday, Jan
4. If New Year's Day falls on a Monday, people may start to head
back to work immediately, on Tuesday, Jan 2.
One tip: in general, if you check blackout dates for fare sales,
vacation packages, and your frequent flyer miles, these correspond
closely to the peak travel dates.
Where Are You Going?
Other peak travel destinations and periods:
Summer: destinations throughout Europe, Hawaii, Canada, the
Pacific Northwest, Alaska, Maine and New Hampshire
Spring: (especially during Spring Break): Florida, the
Bahamas, Mexico, some European cities, Carnival cruises, Southern
California, New Orleans.
Winter: any attractive ski resort (especially in the Rockies
and New England), most tropical or semitropical destinations and
islands (especially the Caribbean), Costa Rica and other Central
American destinations, Mexico, Disneyland and Disney World, many
Pacific Rim countries (Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia), Israel
(around holidays, political climate permitting).
Fall: New England and parts of Canada (for fall foliage),
Australia, New Zealand (primarily in the late fall, as summer begins
Down Under).
Tips for Peak Travel Periods
Here are some tips for getting where you need to go during peak
travel periods:
Plan ahead, way ahead.
In the top travel destinations, airlines, hotels, and car rental
companies rarely have reason to offer last-minute incentive deals.
"Low season is low season, and high season is high
season," Zadel said. You're not going to save a lot of money
waiting for late-breaking deals; you're more likely not to be able
to go at all.
Be flexible with dates and travel times.
Especially during peak travel times, the difference between flying
Monday morning or Monday afternoon, or during the day vs. late at
night, can mean big money. Ask your travel agent or the airline to
check around for better rates.
Use any and all moneysaving tactics
For example: AAA members, AARP members, students and teachers,
companions traveling together, credit card holders, and travelers
who check with consolidators and discount reservations services may
find considerable savings by flashing an ID card at the time of
purchase, especially for peak travel periods when prices are high
and universally available discounts few. There are hundreds of
readily available deals out there; think about them before you buy. |
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| |
Peak |
Off
Peak |
Shoulder |
| Florida |
DEC
- APR |
JULY
- OCT |
NOV
- DEC & MAY - JUN |
| Hawaii |
DEC
- MAR |
APR
- JUN |
N/A |
| Alaska |
JUN
- AUG |
N/A |
MAY
& SEPT |
| Europe
(cities) |
MAY
- SEPT |
NOV
- MAR |
APR
& OCT |
| Scandinavia |
JUN
- AUG |
NOV
- APR |
MAY,
SEPT & OCT |
| Caribbean
/ Mexico |
DEC
- APR |
JUN-
OCT |
NOV
& MAY |
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